Last week’s newsletter contained an announcement about Brown Food’s UnReal Milk, lab-made whole cow milk.  It may be instructive to review the status of plant-based meat.

When introduced, plant-based meat was viewed as a major disruptor of the meat industry.  Companies claimed it would displace animal protein in the not-too-distant future ¬ a major threat to the livestock and poultry industries.  BeyondMeat went public in 2019 and soon hit a high of $239.  Sales of plant-based meat substitutes climbed to $1.3 billion in 2020 with forecasts to hit $10 billion or even $20 billion within a few years.  It didn’t pan out that way.  Category sales have been plummeting and today are probably under $500 million.  BeyondMeat stock hovers around $3.  Many stock analysts have stopped covering the company and the sector.

What happened?  It turns out that it costs a lot more to manufacture plant-based meat than to produce beef, pork and chicken.  Non-meat meat also created complications for fast food restaurants because of the need to inventory and serve a completely different, additional line of burger and nugget products.  And ersatz meat really isn’t healthier.  The protein is lower in quality, the products are higher in sodium, and calories are similar.  Perhaps even more important, manufacturers haven’t been able to match the umami, or savoriness, of meat.  So the products are pretty much relegated to the vegan and vegetarian segments of the market, which are tiny.  Consequently, the animal health industry doesn’t have to worry about cattle, swine and chicken production declining after all.

 John Volk

It’s time to go on a diet.  I have always believed for us in the animal health industry, the first quarter is the toughest to get through – the caloric intake always exceeds the caloric output.  The big tradeshow, conference and sales meeting season starts right after Christmas and New Year holiday feasting.  We’ll have fewer excuses now to get out after work and burn off calories…Daylight savings time starts Sunday for those of us in the USA.

It’s also time to say thank you.  Thank you to all of you that attended our 2025 Animal Health Industry Overviews at VMX and WVC this year.  We are not sure how many Overviews Brakke Consulting has given over the years, but we are sure that this was the best attended ever.  And for that we are grateful.  I’d also like to thank our presenting consultants, John Volk, Darrell Klug and Mike McGinley, Randy Freides for tallying up the numbers and Amanda McDavid for organizing everything from start to finish.  And I’d like to thank Paul Casady for organizing two great panel sessions and the panelists, Dr. Jay Price, CEO SVP+MVP, Jeff Simmons, CEO of Elanco, Jesper Nordengaard, CEO Dechra and Tammi Lesser, Sr VP Sales & Marketing, Antech.

If you missed it, let us know – we recorded the WVC session.  And if you have topics to suggest for us to cover at next year’s Industry Overview, please let us know.  Thanks again and time to burn some calories.

 Bob Jones

INNOVATION and PARTNERSHIPS: the key message at Animal Health and Nutrition Innovation Conference, London

Attending the recent AHNTI conference in London, it was great to catch up with old friends, but also to meet new innovators. The overall spirit was very positive in both the pet and food animal spaces.

This year’s major topic was Artificial Intelligence (AI) and several speakers commented on the potential benefits this could bring to our industry.

What became very apparent, is that several leading companies are looking more and more towards the innovative entrepreneur, to bring growth to their companies via partnerships. This method definitely cuts down the time to market as they simply screen proven concepts that require investment getting the product or service or technology to market.

Navigating the early development phase and especially funding for the early startup, was flagged as a challenging area, stifling growth.

Another trend observed, was the increased interest from Human Biopharma companies, looking at entering the pet space with either focused therapeutic vaccines or monoclonal antibody technologies. These companies have done their homework and were well aware of the different challenges and different pricing structures in our industry.

Brakke consulting had several interactions with clients and potential clients and we will be assisting them in several areas, ranging from finding potential partners, testing the market to gain clear understanding of where and how their product offering will fit into the USA market as well as finding target areas to launch products into. Yet another partnership to drive value from an innovator!

Lourens Havenga
Paul Casady

The Smartphone Revolution: How “Buy Now” Changed Shopping Forever

Buying pet products used to require planning—lists, trips to multiple stores, and weekend shopping runs. Before 2010, a gap existed between deciding to buy and actually making the purchase. The effort often led to forgotten orders, second-guessing, or abandoning the purchase altogether.

Then came smartphones, and everything changed.

By 2010, shopping on mobile was clunky, but by 2012, smartphone adoption surpassed 50% of U.S. adults, pushing retailers to optimize mobile shopping. Pet owners no longer had to wait to order—if they saw a product at a friend’s house, got a vet’s recommendation, or ran out of food, they could buy it instantly.

Between 2013-2015, mobile shopping exploded. Chewy, Amazon, and pet retailers refined their apps, making it effortless to compare prices, check reviews, and tap “Buy Now.” Apple Pay and one-click checkout made shopping seamless. Instant gratification became the norm.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend. With lockdowns restricting access to vet clinics and pet stores, owners turned to mobile shopping for essentials. Companies like Chewy and Amazon thrived, while brick-and-mortar retailers scrambled to keep up. Even after restrictions lifted, the convenience of mobile shopping remained a habit.

Today, if a product isn’t available for purchase the moment a pet owner decides, another brand or retailer will win the sale. Consumers expect frictionless shopping and fast delivery. Businesses must adapt to this shift, and the 2024 Brakke Home Delivery Study offers crucial insights into pet owners’ evolving habits.

Smartphones didn’t just change how we shop—they raised expectations permanently. In a world where instant access drives action, being available now isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential.

Richard Hayworth

As we enter the new year and rush of conferences, product launches, new hires, and more, let’s talk about employer brand. Recruitrics, a major recruitment marketing firm says, “Employer branding became more important than ever this year as competition for top talent intensified.”

As we shift from Baby Boomers to Gen Z, we should shift our priorities and messaging. Beyond compensation, Gen Zs value meaningful work and a supportive culture. “65% … won’t apply for a job if the employer’s values aren’t aligned with theirs.”

Authenticity is the new watchword. With the omnipresence of digital communications, personalized authenticity wins the day.

How to address this megatrend? “Regularly update your company’s social media, career site, and other platforms with stories about your employees, workplace diversity, and community engagement … Present a well-rounded, appealing picture of your organization that will resonate with your target talent.” Focus on employees’ feelings and experiences, stressing well-being and mental health. Use video liberally, particularly in team member testimonials. Where possible personalize messages, aligning your culture with candidates’ backgrounds. With a definitive mission for animal health, our industry enjoys an enviable position. Leverage it.

Remember, we’re selling more than buying! Brakke Consulting can help.

Jeff Santosuosso

It was great to see many of our News & Notes subscribers at the VMX conference in Orlando this week and we are very grateful to those that attended the 2025 Animal Health Industry Overview on Monday afternoon.  This was the best attended session we have ever had, so thanks to all of you for your support.

As I walked the exhibition hall and talked to the exhibitors, everyone seemed to be positive about 2025, especially those with new products to launch.  Elanco’s combination parasiticide, Credlio Quattro was launched and the company was taking orders, along with recently approved Zenrelia for atopic dermatitis.  There was some buzz around Merck’s injectable Bravecto parasiticide and possible dermatology product later in the year.

Another notable launch was IDEXX’s new lymphoma early detection test – IDEXX Cancer Dx – notable for its affordability and ability to expand on to other cancers.  There was some talk about Zoetis’s Librela for canine OA pain, but my sense is that veterinarians are simply learning how to use it – my 10-year-old athletic Labrador retriever is doing fantastic after his third injection.

We will hold our Industry Overview at WVC in Las Vegas on March 3rd, so if you missed the one in Orlando, you still have a chance to attend.  Hope to see you there.

Bob Jones

Last week, the annual JP Morgan annual healthcare conference concluded.  Many of the top human and animal health companies presented their future visions to the investing community.  Zoetis and Elanco were front and center and Merck mentioned its animal health business as part of its human health presentation.

I took a few minutes to look at the pipeline focus and products highlighted in these presentations.  The pipelines are heavily concentrated on the companion animal segment.  Therapeutic areas of focus in the pipelines include osteoarthritis/pain, renal disease, oncology, cardiology, dermatology and the next generation of parasiticides.  Many of the pipeline products are monoclonal antibodies, injectable products and focused on long-acting formulations.  What does this mean for the livestock segment?  Maybe it’s just a lack of visibility into livestock pipeline products but it certainly seems that the R&D focus is on the segment of the market providing the highest growth rates.

It will be interesting to see how the overall market evolves with the next wave of innovation.  These new therapies that are primarily delivered via injections will drive patients back to the veterinary clinic.  Will there be a bifurcation of the prescription market with Chewy/Amazon/PetMeds focusing on oral prescription and OTC products and veterinarians focusing on injectables and vaccines?

We will talk about innovation at the Brakke Consulting annual Industry Overview presentation at both VMX and WVC – hope to see you there.

Randy Freides

That there are a number of concerning trends in animal diseases right now. There’s the ongoing problem with highly pathogenic avian influenza in both birds and dairy cows; Mexico’s announcement of new world screwworm; the detection of African Swine Fever on Caribbean islands, and this week the first case of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany in 40 years, to name a few.

Our government in the US seems to be taking the threat of foreign diseases seriously. USDA is establishing a Swine Health Improvement Program that will monitor for ASF and CSF. They have earmarked $165 million in emergency funding for protecting US livestock from screwworm, and are rebuilding the government’s avian influenza vaccine stockpile.

We have already seen instances of species-hopping in these viruses – for example, avian influenza has sickened both cows and cats, as well as a few people. For that reason, it’s imperative that the One Health approach becomes the standard in both human and animal healthcare moving forward. The US Government’s newly released National One Health Framework is a step in the right direction. Now it’s time to implement their recommendations and to work collaboratively to address threats and public health preparedness.

 Lynn Fondon

A recent analysis by Vetsource, a service provider to veterinary practices, showed that prices in companion animal practices (measured July to July) increased 7% in 2022, 10% in 2023 and 8% in 2024 – all well above the US rate of inflation.  One of the primary reasons was the increased cost of labor, the largest expense category for veterinary practices.  Mean starting salaries for new DVM graduates in companion animal practices reached $137,727 in 2024, compared to just $97,000 in 2020.  Salaries for non-veterinary team members were up significantly as well.  Now price inflation is having the expected impact: driving down demand (although revenue growth is still in positive territory).

What does this bode for the future?  We’ll have much more data to share at the Brakke Industry Overview at VMX and WVC, including the results of a comprehensive Workforce Study that we recently completed.  It forecasts veterinarian workforce needs to 2035.  Please join us at the Overview to learn more!

 John Volk, Senior Consultant
Chicago

One of the things that I learned in my career in the animal health industry is that to open a new chapter, the old chapter needs to be closed.  The context for this was usually an acquisition, which happened to me five times, or a significant job change.  But this week, let’s expand the opening and closing of chapters to the financial performance of companies on our stock table.

This week we have posted the full year stock price performance for 2024 for the animal health companies and next week the reporting of 2025 stock price performance will begin.  Because of the large variation in stock price performance, we added the 2023 year-end performance for comparison.  A few things stand out.

First, we have had two years of good and similar performance in the broader indexes – the S&P 500 and the DJIA.  Second, of the currently public animal health companies, only Freshpet had two good years in a row – and their growth is about three times the S&P 500 growth.  Third, for several companies, the gains seen in 2023 were given back in 2024 (Elanco, IDEXX, Neogen, Zoetis and Zomedica).  Finally, 2024 was a much better year for only a few companies (Chewy, Phibro and Trupanion).

As we close 2024, let’s open 2025 and hope for impressive performance the publicly traded and private animal health companies.  We’ll track it for you.

Bob Jones